What Does the Drop of Unemployment Claims Tell Us?

Last week, the weekly Unemployment claims drop sharply to 434K.  But I don’t think it suggests US economy is accelerating because the unemployment condition lags the economy.  In another word, it just reflects the economy conditions in the last few months.  Based on my GDP model, compared with July of 2008, the monthly GDP of the United States are  98.86%, 99.81%, 100.02% and 95.89% in July, August, September and October, respectively.  The gradual grows from July to September ensure the employment conditions are improving right now, so is the stock markets.  But the sharp drop of US production activities since October dooms the unemployment rate will pick up sharply starting December and throughout at least the first half of 2011.

Advertisements
This entry was posted in Economy and tagged , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s