Last week, the weekly Unemployment claims drop sharply to 434K. But I don’t think it suggests US economy is accelerating because the unemployment condition lags the economy. In another word, it just reflects the economy conditions in the last few months. Based on my GDP model, compared with July of 2008, the monthly GDP of the United States are 98.86%, 99.81%, 100.02% and 95.89% in July, August, September and October, respectively. The gradual grows from July to September ensure the employment conditions are improving right now, so is the stock markets. But the sharp drop of US production activities since October dooms the unemployment rate will pick up sharply starting December and throughout at least the first half of 2011.
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