Monthly Archives: November 2010

2015-2020 对美国赶超态势,轮廓非常显明

新加坡《联合早报》文章 原题:认清五年大变局 美国“纽约经济咨商理事会”近日公布研究结果称,按照购买力平价计算,中国大陆两年后就将超越美国,成为世界最大的经济体。渣打银行也在这几天公布 了最新研究,称10年内按照名义价格计算的中国国内生产总值将成为世界第一。两年前,中国“不无可能”在2040年赶超美国,还是国际舆论的主流意见,现 在这个迷思似乎受到愈来愈激烈的质疑。 一个月前,美国著名记者扎卡利亚在《时代周刊》谈论中国的冲击时,提及诺贝尔经济学奖得主弗格尔的一篇研究。该研究指出,2040年中国的经济规模可能占世界的4成,达到123万亿美元。

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The U.S. GDP Grows at 4% in October and November

I am doing a great experiment to prove my GDP real-time thermometer model.  The stock market, as a real-time thermometer of the economy according to my theory, suggests the U.S. economy expanded at about 4% rate in both October and November if my … Continue reading

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The Big Picture

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CDS Implied and S&P Rating Divergence

10-year bond yields for Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Greece — year preceding November 26, 2010 (Bloomberg)

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The Dollar Has Bottomed Out

The following chart indicates the dollar reversed 3 weeks ago.  The past experience on the dollar movement suggests it would increase 4-5 weeks in the row.  If that is true, it has finished the 3rd week up and is expected … Continue reading

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My Inventory Theory

By Hui Zhong Most economists get wrong with the inventory adjustment in the BEA GDP quarterly reports.  The inventory adjustment is the derivative of the inventory growth rather than the inventory growth itself.  A positive inventory adjustment does not ensure … Continue reading

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Market Watch – 11/24/10

Today is the last trading day before the Thanksgiving day, so it is crowded with economic data.  The first time to apply unemployment benefit plunge sharply to 407 K from 441 K the week before last week, a multi-year low.  … Continue reading

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