Wholesale Data Suggests Economy Expanded at 4% Pace in October

In October, the inventory of wholesale grew 1.9% plus 2.2% growth of sale.  That comes to 4.1% growth of demand from wholesalers and eventually will translate to 4% sale growth for manufacturers.  It has been reported the retail sale grew at 1.2% in October.  That explains the 2.2% sale growth for wholesalers when about same amount of growth of retail inventory is added.  The wholesale data is consistent with my GDP estimate for October based on my GDP real-time thermometer model that The U.S. GDP Grows at 4% in October and November.

Moreover, the September wholesale data with totally 2.6% growth of sale and inventory are also consistent with the 2.5% revised BEA GDP growth in Q3.  Note the inventory in the BEA report refers to the aggregate inventory that is the sum of the inventory of manufacture, wholesale and retail.

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