The 0.6% growth is calculated based on my GDP Real-Time Thermometer Model. It is much better than -3.5% contraction I expected back in July. Thanks for the pickups of the economic activities in retail and wholesale levels which effectively compensate the contraction in manufacture level. But the economic activities in the production level remain cold and have become worse which is evidenced by -8.48 reported today for the Empire Manufacturing. Remember the activities in production level has higher weight on the GDP. So the major markets will not have substantial bull run in the near future until the production end bottoms out. A significant pull back is expected.
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