Category Archives: Economic & Financial Modelling

Protected: Elliott Wave Overlapping Factor F

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Relationship Between VIX and Weekly Standard Deviation of Dow 30

By Hui Zhong Denote Vix = V, Price of Dow 30 = P, Weekly Standard Deviation of Dow 30 = D Then D/P x 1.1 x (52)1/2 =(2)1/2 V/100 where 1.1 = $VIX / $VXD So: D = 0.00197 PV/1.1 = 0.00179PV … Continue reading

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October Business Inventory Grew at 0.7%

The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce today reported its October business inventory data come at 0.7% pace and its September data were revised up from 0.9% to 1.3%.  Also today reported is the October revised retail sale growth at 1.7% better than … Continue reading

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The U.S. GDP Grows at 4% in October and November

I am doing a great experiment to prove my GDP real-time thermometer model.  The stock market, as a real-time thermometer of the economy according to my theory, suggests the U.S. economy expanded at about 4% rate in both October and November if my … Continue reading

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My Inventory Theory

By Hui Zhong Most economists get wrong with the inventory adjustment in the BEA GDP quarterly reports.  The inventory adjustment is the derivative of the inventory growth rather than the inventory growth itself.  A positive inventory adjustment does not ensure … Continue reading

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Why Most Economists Are Wrong in the Past 30 Years?

By Hui Zhong They base their logic completely on the past performances. That is why most of the economists got wrong with the U.S. economy in the past 30 years. They use pure mathematical, linear and kinetic model to describe a … Continue reading

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What Do I Expect From the BEA Q3 GDP Report?

On October 29, BEA will report its Q3 GDP results of the U.S.  It is widely speculated that Q3 GDP should grow at 2.0% rate.  But the direct reading from the CMI weighted index points to a contraction of 2.0%.  Using the … Continue reading

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