Category Archives: Economy

Market May Crash Down Fast to Below 14,000 by 9/9/13

My GDP real-time thermometer model recently issued a strong warning about the US Stock Market.  The Dow30 has topped in August and it may crash down to from 13,500 to 14,000 by 9/9/13.  I post the warning from the model … Continue reading

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The GDP of the U.S. Economy Should Expand Around 0.6% in Q3

The 0.6% growth is calculated based on my GDP Real-Time Thermometer Model.  It is much better than -3.5% contraction I expected back in July.  Thanks for the pickups of the economic activities in retail and wholesale levels which effectively compensate the contraction … Continue reading

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My Predictions on the U.S. GDP expansion in Q2, Q3 and Q4 / 2011

Based on 55 mainstream economists surveyed in July, they expect the GDP grows 1.9% on average for Q2, 3.1% for Q3 and Q4 this year.  Market expects the Q2 grew at 1.7%.  The followings are the forecasts based on my models for the U.S. economy: … Continue reading

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Gasoline Price and Sale

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Update on March Business Inventory

The business inventory continued to expand in March with about 1% growth rate.  This spells a heathy economic growth during that period of time.  But as I have said many times, this growth is powered by the inventory, not by the … Continue reading

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Consumer Price Index Since 2000

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Update on Business Inventory in February

I have no much to say about the February business inventory data beyond what I have said before on this topic.  Both the retail sale and business inventory are growing indicating a consistent economic growth in February.

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The Backfire of QE and High Oil Price

last week I topped my article regarding the Federal Reserve’s QE that pumps the liquidity to the supply side instead of the demand side.  The article further pinpointed that the consequence of the QE, accompanying with high oil price, will reluctantly squeeze the … Continue reading

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Exchange Rate of Chinese Yuan and Inflation in China

By Hui Zhong We all know the living standard in China, denoted by increased incomes and savings, is quickly diluted by its high inflation, especially for the food prices.  The inflation is always associated with over printing by the Chinese Central Bank.  But … Continue reading

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Retail Sale Miss in January but the Business Inventory Beat in December

Today the U.S. Census Bureau reported the January’s retail sale comes at +0.3%, lower than the +0.5% expectation by the market.  The retail sale data of December is also revised down to +0.5% from +0.6% reported earlier.  In another report, December’s business inventory … Continue reading

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Food Prices in China

The data of the following Table listing the food prices in China comes from National Bureau Of Statistics of China.  Remember food prices in China occupy 31.4% of its CPI.  1 U.S. Dollar = 6.6 Chinese Yuan

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20 Reasons Why a Wall Street Panic May Be Close

US Muni bond indices collapsing US State bankruptcy procedures being seriously discussed, indicating bankruptcies are imminent the 7 day SHIBOR (and repo rate) surging to new multi-year highs and has literally exploded from 2.5% to 7.3% in a few short … Continue reading

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Shock as UK economy shrank by 0.5% at end of 2010

Graeme Wearden guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 25 January 2011 11.38 GMT The UK economy shrank by a shock 0.5% in the last quarter of 2010 as Britain’s recovery from recession faltered. Most of the unexpected contraction was caused by the wintry weather … Continue reading

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SHIBOR: We Have A BIG Liquidity Problem

Submitted by Tyler Durden from Zerohedge.com on 01/21/2011 12:50 -0500 When two weeks ago we first pointed out the surging Chinese weekly SHIBOR (following up on comparable observations from last summer) it prompted a variety of bemused responses, the bulk of which … Continue reading

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December CPI and Retail Sale Missed Expectations

The retail sale data in December come as 0.6% growth with expectation of 0.8%.  With the gasoline price flying, the CPI in December increases by 0.5%, missing market expectation of 0.4%.  Note that when consumers spend more on the gas that stimulates import they … Continue reading

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Shipping Rates Poised to Plunge 31% on Glut Off Australia: Freight Markets

By Alaric Nightingale – // Jan 12, 2011 10:02 AM ET from Bloomberg A 20-mile-long line of commodity carriers off Queensland, suffering its worst floods in a half- century, means less income for owners already reeling from the biggest slump … Continue reading

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In Illinois, a Giant Deficit Leads to Talk of a Giant Tax Increase

By MONICA DAVEY from New York Times, Published: January 9, 2011 SPRINGFIELD, Ill.— With Illinois’s budget crisis reaching dizzying, desperate levels, lawmakers here over the weekend were seriously pondering something that would have been unimaginable even a few months ago: a … Continue reading

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Market Watch – 01/11/2011

The minute wave [iv] looks ended yesterday and lasts 3 days.  If it is the case, the new bullish minute wave [v] kicked off yesterday after touching the 20 day simple moving average.  According to my mood dynamic theory, it should last about … Continue reading

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44% jump in Australia property listings points to price falls in 2011: Expert

Monday, 10 January 2011 09:08 By Patrick Stafford The property market could be set for early-year price falls due to a build up of unsold properties, with new figures by property research company SQM Research showing the number of listings swelled … Continue reading

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7 Reasons Food Shortages Will Become a Global Crisis

Activist Post Food inflation is here and it’s here to stay.  We can see it getting worse every time we buy groceries. Basic food commodities like wheat, corn, soybeans, and rice have been skyrocketing since July, 2010 to record highs. … Continue reading

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