Tag Archives: BEA

My Predictions on the U.S. GDP expansion in Q2, Q3 and Q4 / 2011

Based on 55 mainstream economists surveyed in July, they expect the GDP grows 1.9% on average for Q2, 3.1% for Q3 and Q4 this year.  Market expects the Q2 grew at 1.7%.  The followings are the forecasts based on my models for the U.S. economy: … Continue reading

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My Inventory Theory

By Hui Zhong Most economists get wrong with the inventory adjustment in the BEA GDP quarterly reports.  The inventory adjustment is the derivative of the inventory growth rather than the inventory growth itself.  A positive inventory adjustment does not ensure … Continue reading

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A Deeper Look at BEA Q3 GDP Report

BEA reported the Q3 GDP growth of the U.S. that comes at 2.0%.  As I have posted before, the CMI consumer spending index indicates the expansion should be -1.5% + non-consumer items, after modified by the equations I introduced.  The non-consumer items, including … Continue reading

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What Do I Expect From the BEA Q3 GDP Report?

On October 29, BEA will report its Q3 GDP results of the U.S.  It is widely speculated that Q3 GDP should grow at 2.0% rate.  But the direct reading from the CMI weighted index points to a contraction of 2.0%.  Using the … Continue reading

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My Discussions with President Rick Davis of CMI About Consumer Metrics Daily Growth Index VS BEA GDP‏

Rick Davis,   Thank you for your reply with some discussions of CMI index.  By using your index to predict the Q2/2010 BEA GDP, I expect 1.6% contraction but BEA report it as 1.7% expansion.  When looking through your methodology I believe your index still an excellent gauge … Continue reading

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A Reply From Dr. Rick Davis of Consumer Metric Institute

Hui Zhong: Thank you for your kind words and interest in the Consumer Metrics Institute. 1) Since all of our data is presented as year-over-year comparisons, to some extent your observations are true: 2008 saw a sharp decline, the 2009 … Continue reading

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My Questions to President of Consumer Metric Institute – Rick Davis

Dear Sir,   I follow your web site everyday and get very interested in your methodology to forecast the climate of US economy.  I noted your consumer index contracts significantly during the summer of 2008 predicting the great recession 18 weeks … Continue reading

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