Tag Archives: CMI

20 Reasons Why a Wall Street Panic May Be Close

US Muni bond indices collapsing US State bankruptcy procedures being seriously discussed, indicating bankruptcies are imminent the 7 day SHIBOR (and repo rate) surging to new multi-year highs and has literally exploded from 2.5% to 7.3% in a few short … Continue reading

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My Inventory Theory

By Hui Zhong Most economists get wrong with the inventory adjustment in the BEA GDP quarterly reports.  The inventory adjustment is the derivative of the inventory growth rather than the inventory growth itself.  A positive inventory adjustment does not ensure … Continue reading

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ECRI Weely Leading Index – 11/19/2010

Today the Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) registered negative growth for the 24th consecutive week, coming in at -4.5. The rate of contraction has been lessening for the past 16 weeks. The latest weekly … Continue reading

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Market Is On The Edge of Crash.

Next 4-5 weeks will be very interesting.  First of all, the plunge of the CMI index from July to August suggests the economic activities will crash down in next 5 weeks. Second, the bond market looks topped already and the bond … Continue reading

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Market Watch – 11/05/2010

Market has priced in the growth rate of 2% of the U.S. economic activities right in today.  That is reflected in the Dow 30 price of  more than 11,400.  But the CMI index projects the consumer spending contracts at about 4% rate … Continue reading

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A Deeper Look at BEA Q3 GDP Report

BEA reported the Q3 GDP growth of the U.S. that comes at 2.0%.  As I have posted before, the CMI consumer spending index indicates the expansion should be -1.5% + non-consumer items, after modified by the equations I introduced.  The non-consumer items, including … Continue reading

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The Reply From Dr. Rick Davis – President of Consumer Metric Institute

Hui Zhong: Thank you for your excellent analysis. We think your revised equations have great merit, and we will watch their results moving forward with much anticipation. And we had not thought about your point (3.) before — C+(X-M) makes … Continue reading

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