Tag Archives: Dow 30

Market May Crash Down Fast to Below 14,000 by 9/9/13

My GDP real-time thermometer model recently issued a strong warning about the US Stock Market.  The Dow30 has topped in August and it may crash down to from 13,500 to 14,000 by 9/9/13.  I post the warning from the model … Continue reading

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Protected: Market Watch – 02/11/2012

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Market Watch – 04/22/2011

The reverse head and shoulder formation is complete and the neckline has been broken for the Dow 30.  I expect the market will be bullish at least in the next couple of months without major correction.  The price target should … Continue reading

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More Plunge in Next Two Days

This is just minuette wave (4) of minute wave [3] of minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (1) of primary wave [C].  I expect more downs in the next couple of days followed by a pull back then followed by another … Continue reading

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Protected: My Forecast of the U.S. Stock Market Movement Up To 2038

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The Major Top Is In

Last Friday, 2/18/2011, marked the end of the primary wave [B] of Cycle wave c of Supercycle wave (a) of Grand Supercycle wave [IV].  If my wave count is correct, it will be the multi-year high of the U.S. stock … Continue reading

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Protected: Relationship between Vix and Dow 30 Price Movement

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Relationship Between VIX and Weekly Standard Deviation of Dow 30

By Hui Zhong Denote Vix = V, Price of Dow 30 = P, Weekly Standard Deviation of Dow 30 = D Then D/P x 1.1 x (52)1/2 =(2)1/2 V/100 where 1.1 = $VIX / $VXD So: D = 0.00197 PV/1.1 = 0.00179PV … Continue reading

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Retail Sale Miss in January but the Business Inventory Beat in December

Today the U.S. Census Bureau reported the January’s retail sale comes at +0.3%, lower than the +0.5% expectation by the market.  The retail sale data of December is also revised down to +0.5% from +0.6% reported earlier.  In another report, December’s business inventory … Continue reading

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Market Watch – 02/11/2011

Market should be bullish thoughout February.

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Why Low P/E Comes With High Interest Rates

By Hui Zhong If we look back the history of the stock market and bond market, we may find a very interesting correlation between the P/E and bond yields.  That is when the stock market bottoms the bond yield also peaks.  In … Continue reading

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The U.S. Dollar Is Approaching the Major Support Line

I expect the dollar will bounce back after touching this major long term support currently a little bit lower than 77.  Together with it, the Dow 30 is supposed to move up to the major top early next week.

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Market Watch – 01/11/2011

The minute wave [iv] looks ended yesterday and lasts 3 days.  If it is the case, the new bullish minute wave [v] kicked off yesterday after touching the 20 day simple moving average.  According to my mood dynamic theory, it should last about … Continue reading

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Market Watch – 01/06/2011

As I have posted before (Market Watch – 12/25/2010), the minute [iii] of minor 5 of intermediate (C) of primary [B] is about to end in the next couple of days.  I feel tomorrow’s employment data for December should be impressive.  … Continue reading

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The Market Trends I Expect in 2011

Stock: Bearish Bond: Bearish Crude Oil: Bearish Gold: Neutral Dollar: Bullish

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My Short Review of the U.S. Economy in 2010

Today is last day of 2010.  To make this review concise, I am not writing the popular topics that everybody knows, like disappointing unemployment rate or QE about which you can find articles everywhere.  I am blogging here on the … Continue reading

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This Time Is Different

By Guy M. Lerner This Time Is Different “This time is different”.  It really, really is.  Trust me.  It’s true.  Those famous 4 words of investing that should have you running the other way and that should be relegated to … Continue reading

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Market Watch – 12/25/2010

Merry Christmas! This year could be the best year since 2006.  The U.S. economy has returned to the level a little better than 2007 based on the retail sale number.  S&P 500 company’s aggregate earnings reached about $20/share, also comparable … Continue reading

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Market Watch – 12/15/2010

The market is overdue for a correction but I expect the correction is shallow.  My wave count is that we are right now in the minor 5 of intermediate (C) of primary [B] of cycle c of supercycle (a) of grand supercycle [IV].  The minor … Continue reading

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October Business Inventory Grew at 0.7%

The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce today reported its October business inventory data come at 0.7% pace and its September data were revised up from 0.9% to 1.3%.  Also today reported is the October revised retail sale growth at 1.7% better than … Continue reading

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