Tag Archives: Economy

My Predictions on the U.S. GDP expansion in Q2, Q3 and Q4 / 2011

Based on 55 mainstream economists surveyed in July, they expect the GDP grows 1.9% on average for Q2, 3.1% for Q3 and Q4 this year.  Market expects the Q2 grew at 1.7%.  The followings are the forecasts based on my models for the U.S. economy: … Continue reading

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Inventory Accumulation Drives the Current Expansion of the U.S. Economy

This bull run since March, 2009 has entered its 21st month, accompanied by the real U.S. economic recovery even though it is just a jobless one.  In the past few years, the U.S. economy has passed four phases in an … Continue reading

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Market Watch – 11/24/10

Today is the last trading day before the Thanksgiving day, so it is crowded with economic data.  The first time to apply unemployment benefit plunge sharply to 407 K from 441 K the week before last week, a multi-year low.  … Continue reading

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Why Most Economists Are Wrong in the Past 30 Years?

By Hui Zhong They base their logic completely on the past performances. That is why most of the economists got wrong with the U.S. economy in the past 30 years. They use pure mathematical, linear and kinetic model to describe a … Continue reading

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A Deeper Look at BEA Q3 GDP Report

BEA reported the Q3 GDP growth of the U.S. that comes at 2.0%.  As I have posted before, the CMI consumer spending index indicates the expansion should be -1.5% + non-consumer items, after modified by the equations I introduced.  The non-consumer items, including … Continue reading

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What Does the Drop of Unemployment Claims Tell Us?

Last week, the weekly Unemployment claims drop sharply to 434K.  But I don’t think it suggests US economy is accelerating because the unemployment condition lags the economy.  In another word, it just reflects the economy conditions in the last few months.  … Continue reading

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Unintentional Consequence of QE by Federal Reserve

By Hui Zhong The current U.S. economy has no doubt on the edge of cliff of deflation rather than inflation.  That is determined by the demand and supply balance.  When there is more money (liquidity) than the products and services … Continue reading

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