Tag Archives: Forcaste

The Market Trends I Expect in 2011

Stock: Bearish Bond: Bearish Crude Oil: Bearish Gold: Neutral Dollar: Bullish

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ECRI Weely Leading Index – 11/19/2010

Today the Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) registered negative growth for the 24th consecutive week, coming in at -4.5. The rate of contraction has been lessening for the past 16 weeks. The latest weekly … Continue reading

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A Deeper Look at BEA Q3 GDP Report

BEA reported the Q3 GDP growth of the U.S. that comes at 2.0%.  As I have posted before, the CMI consumer spending index indicates the expansion should be -1.5% + non-consumer items, after modified by the equations I introduced.  The non-consumer items, including … Continue reading

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What Do I Expect From the BEA Q3 GDP Report?

On October 29, BEA will report its Q3 GDP results of the U.S.  It is widely speculated that Q3 GDP should grow at 2.0% rate.  But the direct reading from the CMI weighted index points to a contraction of 2.0%.  Using the … Continue reading

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The Reply From Dr. Rick Davis – President of Consumer Metric Institute

Hui Zhong: Thank you for your excellent analysis. We think your revised equations have great merit, and we will watch their results moving forward with much anticipation. And we had not thought about your point (3.) before — C+(X-M) makes … Continue reading

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My Discussions with President Rick Davis of CMI About Consumer Metrics Daily Growth Index VS BEA GDP‏

Rick Davis,   Thank you for your reply with some discussions of CMI index.  By using your index to predict the Q2/2010 BEA GDP, I expect 1.6% contraction but BEA report it as 1.7% expansion.  When looking through your methodology I believe your index still an excellent gauge … Continue reading

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My Questions to President of Consumer Metric Institute – Rick Davis

Dear Sir,   I follow your web site everyday and get very interested in your methodology to forecast the climate of US economy.  I noted your consumer index contracts significantly during the summer of 2008 predicting the great recession 18 weeks … Continue reading

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