Tag Archives: GDP

Market May Crash Down Fast to Below 14,000 by 9/9/13

My GDP real-time thermometer model recently issued a strong warning about the US Stock Market.  The Dow30 has topped in August and it may crash down to from 13,500 to 14,000 by 9/9/13.  I post the warning from the model … Continue reading

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Will Dow30 Have 2000 Point Movement Next Week?

My Real-Time GDP Thermometer Model tells me so.  But by common sense, I know it is simply NOT possible.

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The GDP of the U.S. Economy Should Expand Around 0.6% in Q3

The 0.6% growth is calculated based on my GDP Real-Time Thermometer Model.  It is much better than -3.5% contraction I expected back in July.  Thanks for the pickups of the economic activities in retail and wholesale levels which effectively compensate the contraction … Continue reading

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My Predictions on the U.S. GDP expansion in Q2, Q3 and Q4 / 2011

Based on 55 mainstream economists surveyed in July, they expect the GDP grows 1.9% on average for Q2, 3.1% for Q3 and Q4 this year.  Market expects the Q2 grew at 1.7%.  The followings are the forecasts based on my models for the U.S. economy: … Continue reading

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Update on Business Inventory in February

I have no much to say about the February business inventory data beyond what I have said before on this topic.  Both the retail sale and business inventory are growing indicating a consistent economic growth in February.

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Retail Sale Miss in January but the Business Inventory Beat in December

Today the U.S. Census Bureau reported the January’s retail sale comes at +0.3%, lower than the +0.5% expectation by the market.  The retail sale data of December is also revised down to +0.5% from +0.6% reported earlier.  In another report, December’s business inventory … Continue reading

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Shock as UK economy shrank by 0.5% at end of 2010

Graeme Wearden guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 25 January 2011 11.38 GMT The UK economy shrank by a shock 0.5% in the last quarter of 2010 as Britain’s recovery from recession faltered. Most of the unexpected contraction was caused by the wintry weather … Continue reading

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