Tag Archives: Market

The GDP of the U.S. Economy Should Expand Around 0.6% in Q3

The 0.6% growth is calculated based on my GDP Real-Time Thermometer Model.  It is much better than -3.5% contraction I expected back in July.  Thanks for the pickups of the economic activities in retail and wholesale levels which effectively compensate the contraction … Continue reading

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Dollar Bottomed and Treasury Yield Broke Out

Last week  there are two events happening in the market that caught my eyes.  The first is the U.S. dollar bottomed out and reversed its declines in the last few weeks.  The second is that the long term Treasury yields … Continue reading

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20 Reasons Why a Wall Street Panic May Be Close

US Muni bond indices collapsing US State bankruptcy procedures being seriously discussed, indicating bankruptcies are imminent the 7 day SHIBOR (and repo rate) surging to new multi-year highs and has literally exploded from 2.5% to 7.3% in a few short … Continue reading

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The U.S. Dollar Is Approaching the Major Support Line

I expect the dollar will bounce back after touching this major long term support currently a little bit lower than 77.  Together with it, the Dow 30 is supposed to move up to the major top early next week.

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Market Watch – 01/11/2011

The minute wave [iv] looks ended yesterday and lasts 3 days.  If it is the case, the new bullish minute wave [v] kicked off yesterday after touching the 20 day simple moving average.  According to my mood dynamic theory, it should last about … Continue reading

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Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) Falls Out Of Cliff

20 day exponential average in red. 200 day exp. avr. green

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Market Watch – 01/06/2011

As I have posted before (Market Watch – 12/25/2010), the minute [iii] of minor 5 of intermediate (C) of primary [B] is about to end in the next couple of days.  I feel tomorrow’s employment data for December should be impressive.  … Continue reading

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The Market Trends I Expect in 2011

Stock: Bearish Bond: Bearish Crude Oil: Bearish Gold: Neutral Dollar: Bullish

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This Time Is Different

By Guy M. Lerner This Time Is Different “This time is different”.  It really, really is.  Trust me.  It’s true.  Those famous 4 words of investing that should have you running the other way and that should be relegated to … Continue reading

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Inventory Accumulation Drives the Current Expansion of the U.S. Economy

This bull run since March, 2009 has entered its 21st month, accompanied by the real U.S. economic recovery even though it is just a jobless one.  In the past few years, the U.S. economy has passed four phases in an … Continue reading

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Investor Advisor Sentiment Is Approaching Record Level

Each week the service Investors Intelligence surveys some 140 financial newsletter writers to determine whether they are leaning bullish or bearish in their opinions to subscribers. The resulting Investors Intelligence Survey compiles the data to arrive at a weekly percentage … Continue reading

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The Empire State Manufacturing Survey in November Plunges Sharply

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions deteriorated in November for New York State manufacturers. For the first time since mid-2009, the general business conditions index fell below zero, declining 27 points to -11.1. The new orders index plummeted … Continue reading

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Market Watch – 11/05/2010

Market has priced in the growth rate of 2% of the U.S. economic activities right in today.  That is reflected in the Dow 30 price of  more than 11,400.  But the CMI index projects the consumer spending contracts at about 4% rate … Continue reading

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A Deeper Look at BEA Q3 GDP Report

BEA reported the Q3 GDP growth of the U.S. that comes at 2.0%.  As I have posted before, the CMI consumer spending index indicates the expansion should be -1.5% + non-consumer items, after modified by the equations I introduced.  The non-consumer items, including … Continue reading

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The Yield of 10-Year Treasure Looks Bottomed

TNX bottomed at early October, then breaks the 50 day moving average and finds it as support.  This looks like a long-term bottom, a breaking point of bond bubble.

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Market Watch – 10/31/2010

Click for a larger image

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The AAII Bull Bear Spread Reaches 44 Months High

The AAII bull bear spread reached 29.6% on October 28, the highest that has been recorded since 2/22/07 when the spread topped at 31.5%.  The following graph shows the AAII weekly bull bear spread and its 8-week moving average. From … Continue reading

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Market Watch – 10/29/2010

The Q3 GDP comes as better than what I projected.  But there are scheduled revisions down the road.  We may have the last push to reach the top early next week with a double top pattern.  I anticipate to see bull will … Continue reading

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What Does the Drop of Unemployment Claims Tell Us?

Last week, the weekly Unemployment claims drop sharply to 434K.  But I don’t think it suggests US economy is accelerating because the unemployment condition lags the economy.  In another word, it just reflects the economy conditions in the last few months.  … Continue reading

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Market Watch – 10/21/2010

Gold looks topped already.  This divergence may be the topping process of the general market with gold leading the other sectors.

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