Tag Archives: Top

The Major Top Is In

Last Friday, 2/18/2011, marked the end of the primary wave [B] of Cycle wave c of Supercycle wave (a) of Grand Supercycle wave [IV].  If my wave count is correct, it will be the multi-year high of the U.S. stock … Continue reading

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Dollar Bottomed and Treasury Yield Broke Out

Last week  there are two events happening in the market that caught my eyes.  The first is the U.S. dollar bottomed out and reversed its declines in the last few weeks.  The second is that the long term Treasury yields … Continue reading

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20 Reasons Why a Wall Street Panic May Be Close

US Muni bond indices collapsing US State bankruptcy procedures being seriously discussed, indicating bankruptcies are imminent the 7 day SHIBOR (and repo rate) surging to new multi-year highs and has literally exploded from 2.5% to 7.3% in a few short … Continue reading

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SHIBOR: We Have A BIG Liquidity Problem

Submitted by Tyler Durden from Zerohedge.com on 01/21/2011 12:50 -0500 When two weeks ago we first pointed out the surging Chinese weekly SHIBOR (following up on comparable observations from last summer) it prompted a variety of bemused responses, the bulk of which … Continue reading

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The U.S. Dollar Is Approaching the Major Support Line

I expect the dollar will bounce back after touching this major long term support currently a little bit lower than 77.  Together with it, the Dow 30 is supposed to move up to the major top early next week.

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Market Watch – 12/15/2010

The market is overdue for a correction but I expect the correction is shallow.  My wave count is that we are right now in the minor 5 of intermediate (C) of primary [B] of cycle c of supercycle (a) of grand supercycle [IV].  The minor … Continue reading

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The Bond Bubble Bursted?

This is on the background of QE2 that is anticipated to push down the yields and reduce the borrowing costs.  The market seems to say no to Bernanke.

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Market Watch – 11/23/2010

As I have posted before, we have topped on 11/5/2010, Friday.  And I mark that top as the minor B wave.  The  big picture of the current wave count is that we are right now in subminuette c of minuette (a) of minute [a] … Continue reading

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Investor Advisor Sentiment Is Approaching Record Level

Each week the service Investors Intelligence surveys some 140 financial newsletter writers to determine whether they are leaning bullish or bearish in their opinions to subscribers. The resulting Investors Intelligence Survey compiles the data to arrive at a weekly percentage … Continue reading

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Market Is On The Edge of Crash.

Next 4-5 weeks will be very interesting.  First of all, the plunge of the CMI index from July to August suggests the economic activities will crash down in next 5 weeks. Second, the bond market looks topped already and the bond … Continue reading

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The Empire State Manufacturing Survey in November Plunges Sharply

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions deteriorated in November for New York State manufacturers. For the first time since mid-2009, the general business conditions index fell below zero, declining 27 points to -11.1. The new orders index plummeted … Continue reading

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AAII Bull Bear Spread Indicates the Top Is Hit On 11/5/2010

The AAII Bull Bear Spread reaches 29.1% last week, close to multi-year high.  Particularly, the percent of the investors who are neutral hits 13.95%, the lowest since the 10/9/08 when market crashed to the bottom.  And those who are bullish reaches 57.56%, the highest … Continue reading

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Bond Market Looks Topped Already

When dumb money have finished entering the bond market, it is the time for the bond bubble to be broken.  With the QE2 by the Fed announced last Wednesday, the trend of decline of the bond prices accelerates.  The bond market has topped.

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Market Watch – 11/05/2010

Market has priced in the growth rate of 2% of the U.S. economic activities right in today.  That is reflected in the Dow 30 price of  more than 11,400.  But the CMI index projects the consumer spending contracts at about 4% rate … Continue reading

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P3 Senarior is Officially Excluded Today

Dow 30 and SPX both take out the April 26 highs today.  It is either the P3 has not started or it is actually not P3 from April 26 and should be instead labeled as Primary [C].

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Market Watch – 10/31/2010

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The AAII Bull Bear Spread Reaches 44 Months High

The AAII bull bear spread reached 29.6% on October 28, the highest that has been recorded since 2/22/07 when the spread topped at 31.5%.  The following graph shows the AAII weekly bull bear spread and its 8-week moving average. From … Continue reading

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Market Watch – 10/21/2010

Gold looks topped already.  This divergence may be the topping process of the general market with gold leading the other sectors.

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Market Watch – 10/20/2010

Yesterday’s low marks the end of the correction wave b of (c) of [c].  Today’s bullish move kicked off the wave c that has high chance to finish between 10/28 and 11/03/2010.  The end of c is the top of the market. 10/29: … Continue reading

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