My GDP real-time thermometer model recently issued a strong warning about the US Stock Market. The Dow30 has topped in August and it may crash down to from 13,500 to 14,000 by 9/9/13. I post the warning from the model here to examine whether it will be right eventually.
My Real-Time GDP Thermometer Model tells me so. But by common sense, I know it is simply NOT possible.
The 0.6% growth is calculated based on my GDP Real-Time Thermometer Model. It is much better than -3.5% contraction I expected back in July. Thanks for the pickups of the economic activities in retail and wholesale levels which effectively compensate the contraction in manufacture level. But the economic activities in the production level remain cold and have become worse which is evidenced by -8.48 reported today for the Empire Manufacturing. Remember the activities in production level has higher weight on the GDP. So the major markets will not have substantial bull run in the near future until the production end bottoms out. A significant pull back is expected.
Thu, Sep 22 2011
By Robert Evans From Reuters
GENEVA (Reuters) – An international team of scientists said on Thursday they had recorded sub-atomic particles traveling faster than light — a finding that could overturn one of Einstein’s long-accepted fundamental laws of the universe.
Antonio Ereditato, spokesman for the researchers, told Reuters that measurements taken over three years showed neutrinos pumped from CERN near Geneva to Gran Sasso in Italy had arrived 60 nanoseconds quicker than light would have done.
“We have high confidence in our results. We have checked and rechecked for anything that could have distorted our measurements but we found nothing,” he said. “We now want colleagues to check them independently.”
If confirmed, the discovery would undermine Albert Einstein’s 1905 theory of special relativity, which says that the speed of light is a “cosmic constant” and that nothing in the universe can travel faster.
Based on 55 mainstream economists surveyed in July, they expect the GDP grows 1.9% on average for Q2, 3.1% for Q3 and Q4 this year. Market expects the Q2 grew at 1.7%. The followings are the forecasts based on my models for the U.S. economy:
My Predictions Average Projections By 55 Economists
Q2: 1% 1.9%
Q3: -3% 3.1%
Q4: -5% 3.1%
We are going to see the answers shortly after BEA reports its preliminary Q2 GDP growth tomorrow.
The business inventory continued to expand in March with about 1% growth rate. This spells a heathy economic growth during that period of time. But as I have said many times, this growth is powered by the inventory, not by the consumer demands. we can further relate this inventory growth to the QE2. It is the QE2 that is behind this non-consumer driven economy.
The reverse head and shoulder formation is complete and the neckline has been broken for the Dow 30. I expect the market will be bullish at least in the next couple of months without major correction. The price target should have the same distance from the neckline as that from the head to the neckline.
Together with the major indexes, the commodity prices should keep up making new highs, especially for the gold and silver. The crude oil will also make multi-year high, pushing up the gasoline price, hurting consumer spending and lifting production costs of the businesses as the consequences which will drag the U.S. economy back to recession in the second half of 2011 in my opinion.
The U.S. dollar should keep on the downward momentum until the major markets reverse.
I have no much to say about the February business inventory data beyond what I have said before on this topic. Both the retail sale and business inventory are growing indicating a consistent economic growth in February.
- Are you receptive to change?
- Do you often suggest new ideas to others?
- Are naturally dissatisfied with the status quo or the norm?
- Do you keep an open mind, even if something sounds weird or unusual?
- When you run into something that should work, yet, doesn’t work properly, do you view this as an opportunity to learn and fix the problem?
- Are you always curious about the newest technology?
- Are you an aggressive and avid reader of business type books and magazines?
- Do you fight for your convictions about how things should work?
- Are you an active and attentive listener?
- Do you enjoy solving puzzles and problems?
Okay, time to score your results: You want to count the number of yeses in your response to the list of questions. Here is the scoring key:
10 = Genius
8-9 = Highly Creative
6-7 = Moderately Creative
5 and below = You need to work on your creativity beginning today!
This is just minuette wave (4) of minute wave  of minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (1) of primary wave [C]. I expect more downs in the next couple of days followed by a pull back then followed by another wave of pluge to about 10800 of Dow 30 to finish this first minor wave of 1 in early April. I may be wrong on this but this wave down looks rather impulsive and the forcaste I make here is completely based on the equations of my mood dynamic theory.
last week I topped my article regarding the Federal Reserve’s QE that pumps the liquidity to the supply side instead of the demand side. The article further pinpointed that the consequence of the QE, accompanying with high oil price, will reluctantly squeeze the consumer spending and hurt the U.S. economy.
The recent spikes of the commodity prices, in my opinion, are direct consequences of the QE when the printed liquidity flows outside of the United States, causing the inflation of the emerging economies instead of staying in the U.S. and boosting its own economy. Now the backfire of QE, the high oil price, is here. When consumers spend more on the gas they have to cut budget on the others. The strength of the U.S. economy is on the serious test in the next few months. We are going to see how it will be unfolded.
Mar 2, 2011 From Physics World
An extremely hot superfluid at the heart of Cassiopeia
A Neutron stars should exhibit both superfluidity and superconductivity, according to two independent groups of scientists. The researchers studied the neutron star in the supernova remnant known as Cassiopeia A, and found that its core should exist in a superfluid state at up to around a billion degrees kelvin, in contrast to the near absolute-zero temperatures required for superfluidity on Earth.